Comment by Simon Morris, partner of the TTI practice of global management consultancy, A.T. Kearney

Much attention has been focussed on fears that UK airport infrastructure will be unable to cope with the surge of traffic generated by the Olympics and that meltdown is guaranteed.

The first thing to say is that if the Government does not deliver on its promise to ensure that enough fully trained and efficient immigration officers are available to ensure a step improvement on recent experience, things may be very unpleasant for, at least, some passengers and highly embarrassing to the host nation.  It is possible to envisage nightmare scenarios where the build up of unclaimed passengers in the immigration queues cause major stress, and possibly, gridlock to the system. But let us assume that the Government’s undertakings are met, and other agencies (airlines, handlers, supporting road and rail networks) perform - is our airport infrastructure adequate?



One possible reason for concern is that this is the first Olympics for some time where the airport system has not been upgraded in advance. In 2008, Beijing Airport enjoyed a significant increase in capacity whereas for 2004, Athens Airport was relocated from Hellenikon to Spata in preparation (in 2001).  Previously Sydney’s facilities had a major (and expensive) refurbishment prior to its Olympics.  Even the relatively modest demands of the Commonwealth Games in Delhi were part of the reason for a massive airport terminal being constructed in record time.  And yet at Heathrow, all that is being constructed is a temporary departures building.

Major problems cannot of course be ruled out but there are several reasons for being relatively sanguine about the London system’s ability to survive – given adequate arrivals immigration provision.  One good reason is that history suggests that the supposed Olympic related traffic surge could well be more of a ripple. The chart below sets out the performance of Athens airport in the run up to the Olympics in 2004. As can be seen this was a very buoyant time for Greek aviation, with double digit growth resulting doubtless from a nation basking in membership of the euro which it joined in 2001. What is striking is that the poorest month from a traffic perspective was August.

The opening ceremony was on the 13th and the end of the Olympics was on the 30th of that month. This is in stark contrast to Athens Airport’s predictions of a 33% increase in traffic for August 2004 over August 2003 made in June that year.

A similar picture emerges in 1996 (the last time London held a major sporting event – the European football championships). Here the event occurred between the 13th and 30th June. In this case, traffic for the London system was up marginally in June over the previous year compared to May– from 2.9% to 3.6% but the effect is almost lost in the roundings. In July, when many supporters would be expecting to leave, was actually a negative month for the system, year on year.

Reasons for this unexpected result are not hard to find. Many more Londoners in 1996, Beijingers in 2008 and Athenians in 2004 chose to stay in their home city either with tickets in hand or in weary anticipation of likely transport problems. Similarly, many tourists to those cities deferred their trips to a time when hotel prices would be more reasonable and the Olympic crowds had gone home. So it can be argued that Olympic related traffic is generally offset by a reduction in other types of traffic.
                
An obvious objection to this analysis is that, during the whole period of the Games the traffic impact is limited, there are intense peaks of activity at the beginning and end which cause problems for any transport infrastructure. This is a valid objection and it is certainly the case that previous experience resulted in some daily peaks. Again at Athens the airport registered a 33% increase on previous year on the closing day. However, this level of increase is not dramatically different from the types of increase that can affect airports on, for example the first days of school summer holidays or other special events. Heathrow’s peak day in 2011 had 233,561 passengers – curiously almost exactly the same as the BAA’s forecast peak Olympic one way traffic on departures or arrivals (138,000) combined with normal traffic in the opposite direction (95,000)   Furthermore, these orders of increases do not usually translate into equivalent increases in flight numbers – arguably the biggest constraint at the crowded runway systems of Heathrow and Gatwick

Another cause for optimism, aside from the extensive preparations including a temporary facility at Heathrow, is that Heathrow has barely grown since 2004. Moreover the rest of the London system is operating considerably below its peak traffic volumes – certainly at Stansted in particular – but also to a lesser extent at Gatwick as a result of the depredations of recession, competition from rail leading to reductions in domestic routes, and demand-constraining impact of the Air Passenger Duty. These factors have given the London airport system a (temporary) respite leading to some flexibility this summer.

So London may just get away with it for four reasons:

• The travails of the Euro and of the world economy have lowered the base;
• The one-off demand is predictably significantly less than might be imagined;
• Realistic though unglamorous preparations have been made focusing on known weak points
• Heathrow has already coped with similar levels of traffic.

However, the UK and its Government might well start praying that geological conditions in Iceland remain stable, that baggage systems don’t jam, that there is no recurrence of traditional London fog and above all that immigrations officials (and their computers) can perform as planned.  The system may be able to cope – but there is unlikely to be anything to spare to deal with the unexpected.

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