_{By Luke Richards
airrail NEWS}

USA: The headline on the recently printed airrail NEWS (ARN) states “Bye, bye Florida High Speed Rail” following Republican Governor Rick Scott’s decision to kill the Tampa to Orlando high speed rail. Scott’s decision is a major setback to President Obama’s goal, put forward in his state of the union address, to link eighty percent of Americans to high speed rail within 25 years. I wonder what the next printed ARN will say; as I write Scott have been given another week to think again about whether he wants the money or not.

In total, federal money would have paid for approximately $2.4 billion of the $2.6 billion proposed high-speed rail line. The state would have had to pay approximately $280 million of the final cost of the project. Governor Scott said that he had three reasons to reject the money from the Department of Transportation: firstly Floridians could be on the hook for more than $3 billion; secondly, ridership and revenue projections are overly-optimistic; and finally, if the project is shut down, the state would have to return the $2.4 billion used for the rail line back to the federal government.

Risk transfer?
However the game is not over yet. In a sharply worded statement, U.S. Department of Transportation spokeswoman Olivia Alair said “The U.S. Department of Transportation has addressed every legitimate concern Governor Scott has raised with respect to plans to connect Florida through high-speed rail. We have repeatedly and clearly told Governor Scott and his staff that Florida would not bear financial or legal liabilities for the project, and that there is strong private sector interest in taking on the risk associated with building and operating high-speed rail in the state.”

A day after Scott’s decision, Senator Bill Nelson and U.S. DOT Secretary Ray LaHood met at Nelson’s office, and afterward a bi-partisan congressional group, including Republican Rep. John Mica, Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, announced it would try to put together a deal where a third party would assume all responsibility — and the risk — for the $280 million not covered by the federal government, plus any cost overruns.

Institutional Conservatism?

The decision to cancel appears to reflect political preferences rather than logic, Obama and Scott can’t both be right; it’s either the right thing to do or it isn’t. The American political system does not bode well for such grand projects as this; with polarized views on both sides of the political divide and seemingly endless elections I wonder how any transportation strategy on this scale could ever be delivered in the way that European democracies are getting on and building such systems for the wider economic benefit like in Spain where 80% of long distance travel is now by High Speed train. Even in the UK the plan for a north-south high speed line has survived a change of government and some dramatic government spending cuts. In the USA we see the possible second cancellation of this project following Jeb Bush’s decision to cancel the high speed rail project back in 1999 whilst arch competitor China lays high speed lines like a spider makes a web.

The Ridership Issue
I’m not privy to the assumption made for ridership on this line but it’s a reasonable bet it was modeled with utopian optimism; they nearly always are. What strikes me most about the Florida High Speed project is that only the relatively short Orlando to Tampa stretch was funded. I cannot see how such a short rail journey with the interchange penalty and relatively basic local public transport networks to connect with it stacks up against a door to door car journey. The real benefit in the Florida project was the 240 mile extension to Miami. Little is said of this in the debate about the 84 mile Orlando to Miami starter for ten. If this is built without the Miami leg it could become nothing more than Disney’s most expensive and expansive novelty ride.

Privatization
ARN has previously reported on the plethora of worldwide consortia forming to build and operate this service. They are still willing and would surely take the risk of construction overruns and revenues; this is what they do best in many countries. Despite being the largest free market, the USA have yet to get to grips with Public Private Partnership models that are practiced elsewhere. The controversy of the PPP model may be too much for conservative Florida, as might the incursion of foreign investors such as the largely Japanese, Chinese or French teams that have already formed.

Go West!
The highest profile alternative to the Florida High Speed line is in California where voters have already approved an increase in tax to pay for it. With the expected growth in population and the vision of a line that runs north-south through centres of population such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego my money is on that being the showcase for USA High Speed Rail; maybe the unwanted $2.4bn should be also.

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